The Bye Election

The love of Labour has truly been lost.  The east Glaswegian stomping ground that was once one of their safest seats is now in the clutches of their political nemesis north of the border.  What’s worrying for Brown is the result comes on the first day of Labour’s National Policy where he could find his policy, in the clutches of the unions. 

 

With the Blair-era business backers flogging their funds elsewhere, fearful that investment in the party won’t yield the returns it once did with the party’s poorest poll ratings for a quarter of a century and the dodgy loans fiasco, the party is now reliant on the organisations they have tried to wrestle power from.  Now ninety percent of Labour’s income comes from the unions and they “don’t give it to them for nothing” according to the GMB.  Brown has already said he will not bring back secondary balloting for strike action nor internet balloting, one of the unions’ primary demands.  And he would be wise to stand firm.

 

Moving to the left to appeal to Labour’s core-voters as the unions have suggested will not let them keep the keys of Downing Street and the ministries.  Instead they need desperately to move back and keep the centre ground.  That means jumping on opportunities at the opposition’s expense like yesterday’s Tory plans to rekindle their historic link with the Ulster Union Party in Northern Ireland.  This surely undermines any impartiality a future Conservative government would have in dealing with the once troubled and now stable region.  Should any problems arise again would Cameron be in the same position as Blair to be able to bind northern Irish hearts and minds together once more? 

 

From the government’s perspective you could argue the great New Labour success of ending nearly four decades of civil strife risks being undermined by political manoeuvring by the Conservatives.  Instead what message does the government give the electorate – if you’re Glaswegian not a lot.  Not one cabinet minister campaigned in Thursday’s by-election.  Despite Des Browne’s message on the Today programme this morning that the “government needed to listen more” they had the opportunity to do that for the last three weeks.  They did not bother and the voters gave their response loud and clear.

 

The malaise that Labour is in is clear to see.  What is opaque is how to get out of it.  Labour is supposed to develop its manifesto for what would be its historic fourth term this weekend at Warwick University.  That idea on both accounts looks like a fantasy.  Getting everyone to agree to a set of policies will be as hard as getting Gordon Brown to make a decision, with the unions, party members and parliamentarians divided as to what the party should do. 

 

The answer to Labour’s problems lies largely in rekindling the party’s love-affair with communication. It may have led to the spin being tattooed to their name but it won them three elections and it got the party message across.  In fact last summer Brown’s ten point lead over Cameron was in part due to his spin and communication.  Holidaying in Britain then back in London like Saatchi’s flash Gordon posters to sort out the foot and mouth outbreak followed by a very measured, timely and sensible response to the Glasgow terror attack referring to the perpetuators as “criminals” rather than coming out with some 12 point plan which falls by the wayside like his predecessor. 

 

The personal problem for Brown is whether he has the charisma left to do it and whether the party will give him a chance.  Labour has not lost yet, but to regain the political lead they may well need the initiative of a new leader come the autumn.  The ideal candidate would be Alan Johnson.  A moderniser who appeals to southern voters and the unions alike (having been the leader of the Communication Workers Union) he is the one person the Tories fear.  And with his more down to earth, relaxed, but tough style he has the potential to plough back the Tory lead in the polls.  As Health Secretary he has been a success.  His predecessor Patricia Hewitt was heckled and booed by the Royal College of Nursing, this year he received a standing ovation.  He is a canny operator with friends both sides of the Commons including David Davis.  His smooth operator-style may just make things get better for Labour, though as the Telegraph this Saturday reports one cabinet minister as saying “things could hardly get any worse”.