Ed Balls: the backing David Miliband's camp seem confident about securing
David Miliband’s team are confident that Ed Balls will back David’s leadership campaign over his younger brother Ed. Ed Balls’ campaign appears to be floundering after he lost the backing of the two largest unions Unite and Unison over the past five days, coming a distant second to Ed Miliband.
Figures from Labourlist put Balls firmly in fifth place having only won a handful of constituency Labour parties (CLPs) and the backing of one union, the Communications Workers Union.
Speculation has been rife that Balls will soon pull out of the race, which he defiantly tried to quash Sunday on BBC Radio 4 saying he would fight on until the end.
The figures below from Labourlist (usually breaking accurately CLP votes before the Labour Party website calls them) have Balls far behind Abbott and Burnham in joint third place. The unions were meant to be Balls potential stronghold but they have unanimously gone for Ed Miliband. So who, when the time comes will he back?
Labour List Leaders board:
1. David Miliband: 81 MPs, 6 MEPs, 157 CLPs, 2 TUs
2. Ed Miliband: 63 MPs, 6 MEPs, 146 CLPs, 5 TUs, 2 SSocs
3. Diane Abbott: 33 MPs, 20 CLPs, 2 TUs
4. Andy Burnham: 33 MPs, 1 MEP, 40 CLPs, 1 SSoc
5. Ed Balls: 33 MPs, 14 CLPs, 1 TU
Ed Miliband has had a very good week. Just a fortnight ago his brother was in a commanding lead amongst CLP nominations but by this week whilst most CLPs have backed a Miliband, David’s lead is down to 11. David has the backing of most MPs and MEPs – his strongest area – but Ed has the largest majority of Trade Unions with his older bro being backed by two small unions.
Now amongst the closest thing we have to a rank and file membership opinion poll that we can ascertain, David has a slight lead, but Ed appears to have won more of the solid Labour seats (where there will be more Labour party members within those CLPs).
David Miliband’s campaign has always been concerned about Ed Miliband winning a large enough majority of the second preferences (those voting in Labour’s leadership election can rank the candidates in order of preference – the person who first receives 50% of the vote wins) to pinch David to the post in a vote which is bound to go to a second round (David at present looks set to win the first round but will have some distance to go to cross the 50% victory line). Ed Miliband is not far behind and looks to be closing. The fear is those who put Abbott, Burnham or Balls as choice number one will not put David as their second choice – he is the outlier , the progressive, new-Labouresque candidate.
Balls’s is backing would be boost to either Miliband campaign, adding all-important momentum. Balls being more to the left, you would envisage him joining Ed with a promise to take the keys of the Treasury for the office he has coveted for so long. But, David Miliband’s camp are said to have had positive conversations with Balls’s team when their paths have crossed at hustings and there is said to be a good vibe between both sides. It is that Balls sees Ed Miliband as the man responsible for the election defeat as it was he who wrote the manifesto that led them into the election. Winning Ed Balls is backing would certainly push the momentum back in David’s court but will the price be putting someone who has a history of being heavy-handed with colleagues and a single-mind on the economy in charge of the most important office in Whitehall?
